The counting of the mail-in ballots is taking place as I tap this out.
The last time I checked ( September 22, 16:44 ) 35% of the Newmarket-Aurora so-called "special ballots" had been counted.
It looks as if the counting will extend into tomorrow, Thursday, 23 September 2021.
Elections Canada gave preliminary figures for mail-in ballots at 11.59pm on 20 September 2021.
I pick out my own riding, Newmarket-Aurora, and, for comparison, Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill which is next door. The figures are shown in the table below.
What do I take from this?
The mail-ins have always been a small percentage of the total vote. But in this election the mail-ins for Newmarket-Aurora more than doubled (4,656) compared with the Federal Election in 2019 (2,053).
Will the mail-ins change the provisional result in Newmarket-Aurora or Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill?
I very much doubt it.
The Liberals polled well in the mail-ins in 2019 and in 2015 in Newmarket-Aurora.
They took 45% of the mail-in vote in 2019 and 47.5% in 2015.
The Conservatives took 29.8% and 35.3% respectively.
The NDP 13.6% and 12.2%. And the Greens 7.4% and 2%.
There are, of course, wild cards in this election. The PPC is one. But, if anything, a high PPC vote will harm the Conservatives.
76.9% of those receiving a ballot kit for Newmarket-Aurora actually voted. For Aurora, 72.2%
Note: figures are as reported by Elections Canada at 13.50 on 22 September 2021