Details

The man behind the CBC's Poll Tracker, Eric Grenier, today puts the Liberals back as likely winners in Newmarket-Aurora.

Grenier defines "likely" this way: The party has a high likelihood of winning the seat, though there is an outside chance (less than 5%) that another party could win.

Meanwhile the NDP is nowhere to be seen. Their candidate, Anna Gollen, remains totally invisible with no website or phone number with only a week to go before advanced voting begins. 

Gollen doesn't appear on the NDP's list of candidates. As I've said before, she is a paper candidate who is blowing a raspberry at the voters.

NDP vote imploding

In these circumstances it is little wonder that NDP inclined voters are moving across to the Liberals as the only show in Town. (The CBC's Vote Compass is here.)

As it happens, this morning I saw the irrepressible Darryl Wolk out canvassing with others on the street where I live. He is a dyed-in-the-wool Conservative, always ebulient and cheerful and disarmingly frank in his views. He will be knocking on doors up until the last moment.

As it stands, things look nailed down for the Liberals but we wait for the Leaders' debates in Montreal on 16 April (French) and 17 April (English).

This election, more than most, is laser focussed on the Party Leaders. For many voters the local candidates are an afterthought and don't come into the equation.

If Pierre Poilievre is to change the trajectory of the Trump Tariff election the debates will be his last big opportunity.

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 Update on 14 April 2025: The Writ/Poll Tracker says the Liberals are still the likely winners.

Details

A few days ago I got an email from YouTube informing me I had violated their rules on “spam, deceptive practices and scam” and that my account would be terminated. 

The video clips which I occasionally post here to help make a point are gone for good.

Generally speaking, if people upload material on to YouTube which goes against their rules and guidelines they are given a warning - three strikes and you are out.

Egregious

But if your transgression was egregious you can be banned from the platform immediately without going through the three strikes procedure.

Which is what happened to me.

In the case of the three strikes procedure transgressors are told what content was removed; what policies it violated; how it affects their channel and what they can do next.

But I have no idea what I've done wrong.

Repeated Violations

YouTube says accounts can be terminated for repeated violations of the community guidelines 

(1) like posting abusive, hateful and/or harassing videos or comments

(2) a single case of severe abuse (such as predatory behaviour, spam or pornography) 

(3) dedication to a policy violation (like hate speech, harassment or impersonation)

They go on to say:

“We may remove content for reasons other than Community Guidelines violations. For example, a first-party privacy complaint or a Court order. In these cases, your channel won’t get a strike.”

On the face of it, this seems to be what happened to me.  But I don't know for certain.

Complaints

YouTube acts on complaints and I’ve been wondering who is behind it all.

I poke politicians in the ribs all the time. They can give as good as they get. And if they are too sensitive they are in the wrong job.

But who else would bother?

I don’t believe Dawn Gallagher Murphy or Paul Calandra complained to YouTube.  

Bullying and harassment

In the case of our newly re-elected MPP Dawn Gallagher Murphy, my videos were straightforward, run-of-the-mill political comment which touched on her extravagant, publicly funded BBQs and her alleged – and well publicised - bullying of staff. 

In the case of the Government Minister Paul Calandra I used a few clips from Question Time at Queen’s Park when he repeatedly explained away the Greenbelt scandal by saying, ridiculously:

“We made a public policy decision that was not supported by the people of Ontario.”

Opening up the Greenbelt to development was not in the 2022 Progressive Conservative election platform.

The last video clip I posted was on 25 February just a few days before the Provincial election. 

Bogner v Gallagher Murphy 

Standing outside Gallagher Murphy’s constituency office, I called out her alleged bullying by quoting from the affidavit filed at the Ontario Labour Relations Board by her then office manager, Teena Bogner.  

Bogner settled with the MPP before the complaint was heard by the OLRB and since then her lips have been well and truly sealed.

Gallagher Murphy had spoken at Queen’s Park about non-disclosure agreements and how they could unfairly gag the victims of abusive behaviour.  Precisely what had happened here.

It is frustrating not to be told which video clip broke the rules and to have no opportunity to challenge the decision. But I suppose that could risk identifying the complainant.

Fake News

I’ve been absurdly accused of peddling “spam, deceptive practices and scam”.

I don’t do fake news. If I’ve got something wrong I correct it. No ifs or buts.

Anyway, life goes on. 

But without YouTube.

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PS: In 2022 when I was running for Deputy Mayor the editor of the Newmarket Era, Ted McFadden, said I could have 500 words to introduce myself to his readers. He didn’t like what I had written and asked me to change it. If I didn’t, the piece wouldn’t be published. And it wasn’t.

And for some strange reason - known only to YouTube - a clip of Doug Ford survives on my website. The Premier is apologising for his Greenbelt policy. By the time you read this it too could have disappeared.

Details

Newmarket Public Library’s Report to the Community 2024 is seriously misleading. 

It claims a “significant increase” in membership between 2023 and 2024 when, in reality, there was a decrease of 7.9%

In her presentation on Monday 7 April, the Library Chief Executive, Tracy Munusami, told councillors the Library had 22,234 “active library cardholders” in 2024.

Ms Munusami told the Province it had 24,136 active library cardholders the year before, in 2023. (See table bottom right)

The Province requires all libraries to file a wide-ranging set of statistics annually showing membership, usage and so on.

How does the Chief Executive explain the claim there were 9,476 new library members in 2024? The question was never put to her by councillors.

Business decisions

At Monday’s meeting Ms Munusami was quizzed by Ward 4 councillor Trevor Morrison on the reasons for membership numbers fluctuating over the years.

She told him:

“In 2022 we were looking at ways to evaluate the people who are using the library card numbers as well as to clean up our databases.…  In 2022 we've removed accounts from the system that were no longer active library users. The definition of an “active library user” is someone who's used the library in the last 24 months. And in order to make better business decisions we had to have the most accurate data. So that's why we made the change in 2023."

Cllr Morrison: 

“And as a follow up…  the 24 months… is that just something that… the Board (has) come up with or as a library policy?”

Tracy Munusami: 

“So that is the definition through the… We do a survey every year to the Ministry. It's called the annual Public Library survey and that's the definition that they use.”

"Active Library Cardholders"

The statistics submitted to the Province show “active library cardholders” in December each year. Newmarket library card holders have to renew their membership every two years so there is a constant churn with people joining the Library, leaving or renewing their memberships.

Fortunately, the Ontario Public Library statistics allow us to compare apples with apples. The figures do not back up the claim by Library Board Chair, Darryl Gray, that the past year had been marked by a significant growth in membership.  

The Chief Executive’s presentation drew attention to 1,543 new card memberships in 2024 resulting from the Library’s outreach work. That is impressive but this wasn’t enough to lift the total number of active library users in 2024 above the 2023 level.

Outreach

Outreach work is important. The Board and the Council have made it clear there are no plans – nor any ambition – for a new library or even another branch in the foreseeable future. 

Instead, there has been renewed emphasis on outreach work – getting to parts of the Town that are underserved by the Library. The downtown area has a much higher level of Library membership than neighbourhoods further afield.

There was a big breakthrough last October when the Board was shown library membership statistics by ward for, I believe, the first time. Councillors had been pressing for this information. And now that we have the number of active library members by Ward and the Town-wide total we can easily track the number of non-resident Library members who, last year, made up more than a quarter of Library members.

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Note: Some data held by the Province (years 2022, 2020 and 2019) is temporarily unavailable on-line but we can access figures going back to 2014 – and earlier. The Library Chief Executive reported the 22,234 membership in her presentation to councillors on Monday 7 April 2025.

 

Details

9 April 2025: The latest projection from Éric Grenier - who does the CBC's Poll Tracker - says Newmarket-Aurora is now leaning towards the Liberals having fallen back from their previous status as the likely winners. 

 

 

 

The People's Party of Canada and the Greens did not register a candidate.

 

 

 

 

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Details

Elections Canada confirmed today that the NDP is fielding Anna Gollen as their candidate in this month’s Federal election. 

Nominations closed at 2pm this afternoon (7 April 2025). So far, only the Conservative, Liberal and NDP candidates appear on the official Elections Canada website but it will be updated with the definitive list posted on Wednesday. The People’s Party of Canada says their candidate is Andre Gagnon. The Greens are fielding David Hitchcock.

No chance

The NDP’s Anna Gollen is a paper candidate with no hope of winning.

She has no track record of doing anything in Newmarket-Aurora but I wait to see her profile once it is posted on the NDP candidates website. She has no digital footprint and her “campaign” as I tap this out is completely dark.

Mandy Price

Her election agent, Mandy Price, is also the agent for two other NDP candidates in this election, in Bowmanville-Oshawa North and Orleans. But there may be more.

In January the NDP was looking to recruit

“numerous Election Campaign Official Agents to act on behalf of local election campaigns across the country as Official Agents”. 

It may be that Mandy Price is one.

Spoiler

I wouldn’t object to Anna Gollen running for election to the Federal Parliament if she had a track record of doing things. Campaigning. Speaking out. Causing trouble. Being a nuisance.

But we don't have that here. She has been parachuted in.

Until I get to know her, Anna Gollen is just another paper candidate whose only role in this election is to act as a spoiler, increasing the chances of a Conservative win. 

Sandra Cobena and her team will be rubbing their hands with glee.

Brand Strength

In the last three Federal elections in Newmarket-Aurora the NDP vote was greater than the difference between the Conservatives and Liberals. Admittedly, in those elections the NDP had a very strong candidate, standing head and shoulders above all the other contenders. But, even with an invisible candidate this time around, the NDP could easily pick up few thousand votes just on the strength of the brand alone.

Astonishingly, there are no election debates being organised in Newmarket-Aurora in what could be one of the most consequential elections in the nation’s history. So voters have no way of getting the measure of Ms Gollen.

The boundary of Newmarket-Aurora has changed for this election taking a chunk out of the south-west corner and, with it, some Conservative support.

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Update on 9 April 2025: There appears to be no PPC or Green candidates running in this election.

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